Andrew Maguire: Gold and Silver to Skyrocket
Trader Scott’s Market Blog
February 26, 2017
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Andrew Maguire is out once again with his claims about the gold manipulation. “The whistleblowerwho blew the gold and silver markets wide open in 2010 now says gold and silver will skyrocket in 2017….The Death Knell Of Central Bank Gold Manipulation ….Andrew Maguire: “Here we are again at 100/1 (leverage in the paper gold market with commercials) short, as we were when we first spoke back in 2010. But this time there is no Eddie George to come up with a Bank of England sale of 400 tonnes of physical gold. There is no (substantial amount of) physical gold available at this price to swamp the (physical) market. So now we have a physical market that is in control, and this time there is no physical to back it (the short positions) up.”
The interview, of course, was mainly about manipulation. And Mr. Maguire seems like a nice gentleman, but once again Andrew, with all of the manipulation, how in the world did gold rally almost 8x in 12 years. These manipulators areobviously the most incompetent ones ever. If the so-called manipulation is true, then the old master manipulators like the great Jesse Livermore, would be totally mocking these modern day bumbling losers. They are apparently a bunch of Inspector Clouseaus. Why won’t one of the gold permabulls (sanely) explain to me how gold had that massive rally even with all of the manipulation.
So then Andrew started talking about the commercial signal failure(CSF) and reset happening within the next 90 days. Oh boy. If it’s true that’s fine, with my gold position. But it’s not going to happen, and we have been down the CSF road before. These CSF pronouncements crop up after a rally, “because” the “bullion banks, etc.” are supposedly about to have their short positions blown out. The last time Mr. Maguire was pontificating about a CSF was in July, pretty much right into the highs. Not a great time to be getting people bullish about gold, for any reason, stupid or not. Last July the weak hands had gotten themselves into a big pickleand were way out of whack, with their bullishness and gold to the moon fantasies. That isn’t the same situation today. But these stupid pronouncements are not at all helpful, whether it be CSF, Comex default, yuan SDR, US elections – these things are never a reason to buy. In fact, it doesn’t even matter what the “news” is, true or fantasy. When a market has had a big run, the weak hands are all dreaming of the wild “price targets”, the permabulls are super confident, and any “news” is supposedly bullish, then it’s never a good time to buy. But it’scertainly a great time for the market gurus to sell their subscriptions.
Trader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day.Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.
February 27, 2017 @ 4:57 am gerkort
As always…… the algo’s are working. That’s the reality now.
February 27, 2017 @ 6:15 am Aamer
I hope the reference to inspector clouseau is Peter sellers otherwise disappointing….
There should be some kind of official tracking of these guys….Armstrong, sprott, gartman, dent. Otherwise only bought as watches with a warning label….only right two times in a decade.
February 27, 2017 @ 8:07 am traderscott
And don’t miss old Harry Dent’s new book about crashes, which apparently is different than his previous book about crashes – which was also completely , totally, WRONG. But the important thing (for him), it was a bestseller.
March 5, 2017 @ 1:26 am Peter Klopfenstein
It seems odd that Harry Dent is the only one of note suddenly trying to drive everyone out of gold when the massive debt is calling for a gold reset to fix the hyperinflation problem. Did that suddenly go away after the election? Once again the perpetrators of the World money printing scheme want to transfer the world debt into the pockets of the intended victims, you and me. If they can only stampede the herd in the wrong direction just one more time to save their own asses once again. A massive transfer of wealth to them. Not this time scoundrels.
March 5, 2017 @ 1:52 am traderscott
The big reactions are for buying, no matter what the reason for the reaction.
February 27, 2017 @ 9:30 am traderscott
Quiet morning, but Euro good rally/$ down, yet gold not moving, and bonds down. Every day I’m watching this scenario set up for what it means regarding when volatility explodes, and what’s in sync. So $, gold, bonds lining up. And how about US equities, and yen. And the NAK stock has become interesting with the selling climax and retesting. This thing has had a lot of technical damage, and is either a good trader, or you SLOWLY accumulate – layer in. It will take time.
February 27, 2017 @ 9:48 am traderscott
There are commentaries out there about the miners lagging gold, or when silver is lagging, and it means this or that, and that’s fine. But it’s confusing to me. I try to make this business as simple as possible. The PMs to me are about gold. As long as gold is OK, and is not getting too emotional on the upside (upthrust), the other stuff will work it’s way out. But micromanaging when the miners are lagging, or leading – that relationship changes sometimes day by day or even intraday. If someone can use that and it actually helps their net profitability, then fine. But it seems to me, it’s just guessing by most people, and I have to make real decisions and trade, how does guessing help?
February 27, 2017 @ 9:56 am traderscott
Just to add, if something is in an uptrend, how is it bad to have a reaction? Why do people freak out about that? The selling ALWAYS strengthens a market when it’s in an UPTREND. And that’s the key – how many people even take the overall TREND of the market into consideration. They’re just winging it. Not that I don’t blow it sometimes, but at least there’s an approach there. My whole approach is about the accumulation/distribution and the TREND, and using the breaks of support in UPTRENDS as opportunities, not to freak out. But once again, you have to judge the trend correctly (not at all easy), and you have to respect the trend (not at all easy).
February 27, 2017 @ 11:21 am Easy Al
Some people just stand too close to the event so that they only see trees not forest. The other is the pyschological impact of the counter-trend on many players. After a reaction in a uptrend takes place, some people have difficult to tell the secondary move from the primary move. However, nearly all players will have some kind of regrets of taking profit before the reactionary move taking place. Even though many people know that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to catch every moves, it still does not prevent them from thinking of out-smart of many significant moves. The late Richard Russell used to say that riding a primary bull is actually not easy because the secondary moves, just like a real bull, will try to shake many riders off.
February 27, 2017 @ 11:51 am traderscott
EA, some people don’t get why I do real short term trading, but that’s part of it. It helps to keep me grounded in my bigger picture positions. I don’t care how many times people say they are long term, everyone has an urge to take profits. And if people are truly long term, why even bother to look at quotes? Richard was a great guy, and I would add there is nothing, absolutely nothing about this business that’s easy. but one thing is for sure, getting freaked out all the time, and trying to guess/decipher/predict/ – they all mean “out-smart” as you say – these things are a guarantee of lousy performance. I mean look at today even, this weekend a bunch of guessers were claiming the lagging by the miners meant gold is topping. Where does this analysis come from?
February 27, 2017 @ 1:23 pm Easy Al
Sorry, I have a typo. Instead of “however, nearly all players will have some kind of regrets of taking profit before the reactionary move taking place”, it should be “However, nearly all players will have some kind of regrets of NOT taking profit before the reactionary move taking place “.
February 27, 2017 @ 1:24 pm traderscott
Soon you won’t need to deal with the typos anymore EA.
February 27, 2017 @ 1:03 pm traderscott
The NAK opportunity I gave this AM and said for now it’s a good trader. My partner at the new site is a momentum trader, I’m not, but there are many ways of doing this business. My partner will have other trade setups and ideas, so it will be a good mix, and a lot of original content. Anyway she bought NAK early and sold into resistance – awesome.
February 28, 2017 @ 5:36 am ManAboutDallas
NAK is going to be a “traders’ delight” as the battle rages between the Company and the class-action stock-accident ambulance-chasers.
February 28, 2017 @ 7:53 am traderscott
February 28, 2017 @ 12:13 pm ManAboutDallas
For those keeping score at home as the NAK Saga unfolds, as of yesterday – 2-27-2017 – NAK had churned its entire “outstanding” share count since the Valentine’s Day Massacre . 229 million+ shares vs. outstanding of 221 million+, per reliable sources .
February 27, 2017 @ 2:48 pm Jay
hi Scott, eagerly awaiting your new site… when are you planning to launch it?
February 27, 2017 @ 3:06 pm traderscott
Jay, we’re testing it live Wednesday and working out some things. Night and day where we are now.
February 27, 2017 @ 4:18 pm Jay
that’s great.. best of luck! and let me know if I can sign up for beta testing :)
February 27, 2017 @ 6:03 pm traderscott
OK Jay. What’s great is I have a partner with quite a different method than myself. So there will be a wider variety of ideas and opportunities. And yet we were both exiting trades around the same time today without consulting each other – meaning, importantly, there are different ways in this business to get pretty good results – cool that there are so many opportunities.
February 27, 2017 @ 5:37 pm Lee Friedman
The gold realities are this: USD not looking too hot right now, and a lower low on the daily charts is already in the books. That means the USD has to go to a new high from here…..atleast 103.82 , or else it is in fact toast. Gold and silver are not having any problems at all staying afloat on the charts right now. They act like they’ve sniffed out something significant, much more bullish than the inverse of the USD chart. No opinions or commentary required for stuff like this, think like a trader, be like a trader…..
February 27, 2017 @ 7:03 pm traderscott
Lee I said that already in a post from two months ago – gold sniffing out a topping process in the $. I’ve done several posts about previous tops in the $, and how gold bottoms well before the final high. Read them. But that’s my opinion, just like you gave your opinion, and we disagree about the $. At least I think we do. You didn’t say if the $ has put in its’ high. You said if it goes to 103.82, then it’s not. This gold/$ relationship will ebb and flow short term, but it’s syncing up slowly. BTW, a lower low was in the books for the $ on 5/3/16, preceded by the higher high on 12/3/15. And everybody told me I was wrong last May with the “breakdown thru support”. Maybe I’m wrong this time – I’m also bullish on gold, but not buying it now certainly (long term).
February 27, 2017 @ 6:53 pm David V
Away for the day and missed a limit order by two cents then Fed Kaplan
Flaps his jaw. Great.
The U.S. Federal Reserve might need to raise interest rates in the near future to avoid falling behind the curve on inflation, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said on Monday.
February 27, 2017 @ 7:10 pm traderscott
David those idiots will just follow the market anyway. And it allows good backups in the miners.
February 28, 2017 @ 5:44 am ManAboutDallas
Obsequious Toadies and Sycophant Sock-Puppets…. all of them !
February 28, 2017 @ 5:28 am John
I always remember Paul Volker saying the mistake they made in the 70,s 80,s was not controlling the gold price.
If you want to know how the manipulation works check out Paul Craig Roberts.org. He worked with Reagan and explains how the exchange stabilization fund works, he has no subscriptions to sell. You have to produce evidence that there is no manipulation, giving details of positions on comex and over the counter markets. Its all about the dollar says Paul Craig Roberts.
February 28, 2017 @ 7:56 am traderscott
I dis produce evidence John:
“….how in the world did gold rally almost 8x in 12 years.”
February 28, 2017 @ 9:26 am robt
John, the US did try to control the gold price. If you check the record, the US started to sell Treasury gold (like Britain did years later) with pre-announced sale schedules to bring down the price. They began in early ’78 (gold 165) and gave up in late ’79 (gold 500+), when it flopped.
To ‘control’ the gold price down, you have to have unlimited supply of gold, to ‘control’ the gold price up, you have to have unlimited supply of money. Which is why all so-called manipulations or cartels fail.
February 28, 2017 @ 9:36 am traderscott
Thank you for the cogent explanation. The manipulation crowd is so focused on the manipulation, they ALWAYS miss the best entry points into PMS. A real shame they’ve been duped.
March 2, 2017 @ 12:10 pm Robert
The Too-Big-To-Fail banks which own the Fed, and who each have hundreds if not thousands of subsidiaries, including hedge funds and black pools, have been obtaining funds almost interest-free, to the extent that new debt can be created, so while not having unlimited funds to manipulate the market, pretty close- and any one of them, like a rogue MF Global, capable of vanishing if a massive naked short position goes wrong. The central bankers are a chummy lot, but how does CB A really know how much fiat CB B is secretly churning out in his basement? The potential for enormous shifts in gold supplies, or any commodity, for that matter beggars the imagination. This, of course was the whole rational for a gold standard. But apparently, the variuous central bankers think they can outsmart the other, and the “national gold reserves” really only trade hands among them, like a giant game of Liar’s Poker
February 28, 2017 @ 9:00 am traderscott
This runs contrary to the goldbug mantra, but I have repeated this for years, some old posts were about this. PMs and the stock market will move higher together over the coming years. I’m extremely bullish long term on stocks, it just continues to be a lousy entry point for an INVESTMENT in US stocks. The big selloffs are for accumulation in PMs, stocks, and commodities. People ignoring the stock market outright will likely miss some great opportunities. The multi-decade bear market in bonds (upcoming), and the major top in not only the $ (upcoming, but definitely not here yet), but all fiat money, is extremely bullish for all 3 asset classes.
February 28, 2017 @ 9:28 am traderscott
There is a live video here about GLD.
February 28, 2017 @ 1:20 pm Jon
Thanks Scott! Exited all my hedges yesterday (so probably another leg down in the miners). The inverse H/S building out is too obvious and many are watching -so expect something different. Take Care…
February 28, 2017 @ 2:12 pm traderscott
Just added second live video about partial profits in GLD at 119.80….then exit rest of position at 199.79.
February 28, 2017 @ 2:18 pm Easy Al
Is that you who drove IPI down by about 12% today ?
February 28, 2017 @ 2:31 pm traderscott
Funny again EA, I’m completely out for awhile – sold too early like usual. But like what often happens with me, the stock kept going higher, but now well below. Tho, wish I could get better about selling too early.
February 28, 2017 @ 2:40 pm Easy Al
The earning report of IPI was really shaky. But seems that it wants to stay above $1.90.
February 28, 2017 @ 2:48 pm traderscott
I will do nothing if/until my last buy at 1.78 or below. This thing is too volatile.
February 28, 2017 @ 3:09 pm traderscott
Today gold is doing what it needs to do to dump some of the late comers. Good to see, it is only getting stronger by doing this.
February 28, 2017 @ 3:11 pm traderscott
It would be good to see silver do the same.
February 28, 2017 @ 3:19 pm Easy Al
On historical basis, the net long of speculator in silver CoT report is much greater than that in the gold report. I wonder where silver would be if we were still using film cameras.
February 28, 2017 @ 3:48 pm traderscott
You do good research EA, look at the open interest now vs. early 2009. And do it for both silver and for gold, and see what you come up with. It’s very interesting. I’m attempting a post about that currently, just trying to verify, because COTs are not my forte. Also look at the situation for silver in like May to August 2010, that trading range before the blow off into late April 2011. Also interesting. it might be helpful to you.
February 28, 2017 @ 3:58 pm Easy Al
Adam Hamilton writes weekly column and publishes it every Friday on 321gold.com. He provides a lot of useful data (especially historical ones) on gold and silver miners. For instance, he noted that the volumes of the miners in the most recent upward move has been low. http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton021717.html
February 28, 2017 @ 4:11 pm traderscott
Yes I see Adam’s work over there – he does good research. And he’s a consistently hard worker which is great. For volume, I always do it on a relative basis. Relative to the current technical situation – the trend, accumulation or distribution, and where we are in conjunction to support or resistance areas, along with any selling/buying climaxes. For instance for years people have said it’s bearish the low volume in the stock market, but it’s relative to what. They’re just not working hard at this, and just putting out a meaningless stat.
February 28, 2017 @ 4:06 pm Easy Al
For historical perspective of gold and silver COT, see the first chart of this column (click to enlarge to get a better view)
February 28, 2017 @ 4:19 pm traderscott
Yes, you see that is exactly what I’m looking into. The problem is the technical situation. Silver was just coming off it’s massive low. But in this situation that low was in Dec. 2016, we had the big rally, the big high at $21 and then the deep retest. The technical situations are different, but there is still something there, and it’s bugging me – still working on this one.
February 28, 2017 @ 3:27 pm Easy Al
HUI has declined about 12% from its high of Feb 8 in a rising gold and silver market. The largest drop between January 19 and August 2 of 2016 was about 18%
February 28, 2017 @ 3:37 pm traderscott
So from the very low day to the highs of the first leg of the uptrend – meaning this is well within the norms?
February 28, 2017 @ 3:52 pm Easy Al
Adam Hamilton has a chart (the first one) in his recent column. He showed 14.8% over 0.9 month (probably using the closing price, not intraday high and low).
Also see the third chart of this column
February 28, 2017 @ 3:33 pm traderscott
And for the questions I received about the miners around Feb 5th-7th, and missing the move – my advise was, it was getting too bullish, the technical character of the market had changed. And if you’re long term, then to be patient and wait for the backups. Well….
February 28, 2017 @ 8:40 pm James
Posted earlier -but saw no acknowledgement–try again
Yes some of the Perma Bulls are a bit on the nose –BUT it’s about time you acknowledged that the PMs are totally manipulated both up & down. As a very serious Gold Owner ( Physical mainly) I watch the Gold price daily & the Chart evidence is there for all to see. Very large amts of paper Gold are dumped on the Markets at slow times with the sole purpose of changing the trend. Gold is a threat to the Govt fiat and is severely undervalued when compared to the massive money printing that’s occurred over the past 16 years.
Todays price of US1242 per oz is the equivalent of US$ 421 in 1980! This is using the US Govt Inflation Calculator
Instead of ridiculing the more eager Gold proponents you could try directing your energy to expose the manipulation.
It’s obvious , obscene & totally outrageous.
February 28, 2017 @ 9:04 pm traderscott
James you are so obsessed with manipulation you probably completely whiffed on the last two great buying opportunities in gold in Dec. of 2015 and Dec. of 2016. But even with you and your goldbug buddies’ weirdness, you’ll still make money in the gold bull market, despite yourselves.
February 28, 2017 @ 8:47 pm James
You’re obviously a real wanker – – Posts are not even acknowledged . — – and with a NO manipulation mantra.
February 28, 2017 @ 9:00 pm traderscott
Do you feel better about yourself now James. Every comment is allowed as long as you aren’t slandering someone, or being nasty towards another commenter. You can say whatever you wish about me. Have at it.
March 1, 2017 @ 8:36 am traderscott
There are 4 charts attached: The people short the $ are freaking this morning, as the $ is now at 6 week highs. So the people short the $ have to deal with covering or not at this point. I’ve made my views about the $ known, but even so I don’t do “breakouts”, and you can see the resistance areas. The Euro is a total piece of crap, but even so, markets take a winding path to their destination, not a straight line. The straight line mentality, aka, the outcome-based approach is toxic. It’s in the entry points, aka, the better/best opportunities, where some pretty good performance stems from. And 2 more charts, the Yen performance vs. gold in these 2 charts, if you can somehow view side by side. I’ll let you do that – the Yen, and gold this AM. Gold is strengthening it’s uptrend with this reaction. It would be great to see silver do the same, but silver doesn’t care one bit what I think. The Yen has support drawn in.