‘The following is
not publicdocument states

View full size(AP Photo/U.S. Coast Guard)This
image provided by the U.S. Coast Guard Saturday April 24, 2010, shows
oil leaking from the drill pipe of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig
after it sank. A confidential government report on the unfolding spill
disaster makes clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could be on the
verge of becoming an unchecked gusher shooting millions of gallons of
oil per day into the Gulf. A confidential
government report on the unfolding spill disaster in the Gulf makes
clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could become an unchecked
gusher shooting millions of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf.

"The
following is not public," reads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administrations Emergency Response document dated April 28. "Two
additional release points were found today in the tangled riser. If the
riser pipe deteriorates further, the flow could become unchecked
resulting in a release volume an order of magnitude higher than
previously thought."

Asked Friday to comment on the document,
NOAA spokesman Scott Smullen said that the additional leaks described
were reported to the public late Wednesday night. Regarding the
possibility of the spill becoming an order of magnitude larger, Smullen
said, "I’m letting the document you have speak for itself."

In
scientific circles, an order of magnitude means something is 10 times
larger. In this case, an order of magnitude higher would mean the volume
of oil coming from the well could be 10 times higher than the 5,000
barrels a day coming out now. That would mean 50,000 barrels a day, or
2.1 million gallons a day. It appears the new leaks mentioned in the
Wednesday release are the leaks reported to the public late Wednesday
night.  

"There is no official change in the volume released but
the USCG is no longer stating that the release rate is 1,000 barrels a
day," continues the document, referred to as report No. 12. "Instead
they are saying that they are preparing for a worst-case release and
bringing all assets to bear."

The emergency document also states
that the spill has grown in size so quickly that only 1 to 2 percent of
it has been sprayed with dispersants. 

The Press-Register
obtained the emergency report from a government official. The White
House, NOAA, the Coast Guard and BP Plc did not immediately return calls
for comment made early this morning.

The
worst-case scenario for the broken and leaking well pouring oil
into the Gulf of Mexico would be the loss of the wellhead and kinked
piping currently restricting the flow to 5,000 barrels — or 210,000
gallons — per day.

• LATER REPORT: Video
  shows federal officials knew quickly of potential for massive oil flow
  in Gulf spill

If the wellhead is lost, oil could leave
the well at a much greater rate.

"Typically, a very good well in
the Gulf can produce 30,000 barrels a day, but thats under control. I
have no idea what an uncontrolled release could be," said Stephen Sears,
chairman of the petroleum engineering department at Louisiana State
University. 

On Thursday, federal officials said they were
preparing for the worst-case scenario but didn’t elaborate.

Kinks
in the piping created as the rig sank to the seafloor may be all that
is preventing the Deepwater Horizon well from releasing its maximum
flow. BP is now drilling a relief well as the ultimate fix. The company
said Thursday that process would take up to 3 months.

"I’m not sure whats happening down there right now. I have heard
there is a kink in whats called the riser. The riser is a long pipe
that connects the wellhead to the rig. I really don’t know if that kink
is a big restriction. Is that really a big restriction? There could be
another restriction further down," said LSUs Sears.

 "An analogy
would be if you have a kink in a garden hose. You suspect that kink is
restricting the flow, but there could be another restriction or kink
somewhere else closer to the faucet. 

BP Plc executive Doug
Suttles said Thursday the company was worried about "erosion" of the
pipe at the wellhead.

Sand is an integral part of the formations
that hold oil under the Gulf. That sand, carried in the oil as it
shoots through the piping, is blamed for the ongoing erosion described
by BP.

"The pipe could disintegrate. You’ve got sand getting into
the pipe, its eroding the pipe all the time, like a sandblaster," said
Ron Gouguet, a former oil spill response coordinator for the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

View full size(AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)Oil
scooped up from the Gulf of Mexico 17 miles southeast of the South Pass
of the Mississippi River is seen on the hand of deck hand Jordan Ellis
on the Louisiana coast Friday, April 30, 2010. The oil originated from a
leaking pipeline after last weeks explosion and collapse of the
Deepwater Horizon."When the oil is removed
normally, it comes out at a controlled rate. You can still have abrasive
particles in that. Well, now, at this well, its coming out at fairly
high velocity," Gouguet continued. "Any erosive grains are abrading the
inside of the pipe and all the steel that comes in contact with the
liquid. Its essentially sanding away the pipe."

Gouguet said the
loss of a wellhead is totally unprecedented.

"How bad it could
get from that, you will have a tremendous volume of
oil that is going to be offgassing on the coast. Depending on how much
wind is there, and how those gases build up, thats a significant
health concern," he said.

The formation that was being drilled by
Deepwater Horizon when it exploded and sank last week is reported to
have tens of millions of barrels of oil. A barrel contains 42 gallons.

Smullen
described the NOAA document as a regular daily
briefing. "Your report makes it sound pretty dire. Its a
scenario," he said, "Its a regular daily briefing sheet that
considered different scenarios much like any first responder would."

(Updated
5:57 p.m. to add response from NOAA spokesman.)