US$ Top/Major or a Pause
Trader Scott’s Market Blog
December 5, 2016
The “brand new” “Donald Trump US$ Bull Market” (which started in March 2008)is looking a little wobbly. As I’ve been repeating, the strong hands like to draw in lots of late comers (weak hands), by pushing a market thru the support and resistance areas, only to wash them right back out. So that’s why I was running the big chart of the $ with the resistance area marked and said this from November 16th:
I’m still very bullish on the US$, but that boat is getting a bit overloaded (of course after a big rally). And currently the $ is at a large resistance area. I do believe we push thru this area (100.5 on the US$ Index). But I’m aware there could be a large counter-trend move forming in here, especially with a potential for a quick upthrust thru this 100.5 area (sort of similar to what gold did on election night).
So, we did see the upthrust thru the resistance area as shown on the updated weekly chart, thedaily chart and here on an intraday view. Then, as per usual, you can see the late comers were drawn in by all of the suddenly discovered reasons to be long the $. And the strong hands are already pushing some of the new bulls off of the USS Trump Cruise Ship headfirst into the frigid Atlantic waters. (Hopefully Captain Stubing threw them some life preservers.) You can see the push right back below 100.5. The strong hands accomplished this by “letting” the market (weak hands) upthrust thru 100.5 on the index. And then they could sell and also sell short to their new customers, courtesy of the ridiculousness surrounding the “new” Trump $ Bull. The new demand on the “breakout”, as can better be seen on the intraday chart, was necessary to accomplish the strong hands’ goal. And you can also see the new little support area which formed at 100.64.
But I do believe this is just a pause in the big $ bull market. There are many who will believe this is the top in the US$, but my plan is to add on if the selling gets intense enough. This could be a precursor to some loss of faith in the “brand new” “Donald Trump US Stock Bull Market” (which started on March 9, 2009).
Trader Scott has been involved with markets for over twenty years. Initially he was an individual floor trader and member of the Midwest Stock Exchange, which then led to a much better opportunity at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. By his early 30’s, he had become very successful in markets, but a health situation caused him to back away from the grind of being a full time floor trader. During this time away from markets, Scott was completely focused on educating himself about true overall health and natural healing which remains a passion to this day.Scott returned to markets over fifteen years ago where he continues as an independent trader.